Log in to Members Area:

    National Electricity Market Modelling - ACIL Tasman Report

    ACIL Tasman has been engaged by the Energy Supply Association of Australia to undertake a study into the impact of reduced levels of electricity contracting on electricity prices in the National Electricity Market (NEM). This modelling is designed to assess likely impacts of lower contracting caused by the introduction of the carbon price and structure of the Clean Energy Future package.

    The scope of the engagement includes establishing a reference case simulating the carbon price as per the announced Clean Energy Future (CEF) policy and undertaking three sensitivities simulating lower contract levels. The sensitivities selected to be modelled were a:

    • 5% reduction in contract volumes as a percentage of demand across all regions across all years of the projection

    • 10% reduction in contract volumes in Victoria and 5% reduction in contract volumes in all other regions as a percentage of demand across all regions across all years of the projection (reflecting greater uncertainty in Victoria because of the high proportion of brown coal fired plant)

    • 15% reduction in contract volumes as a percentage of demand across all regions across all years of the projection.